At a Thursday meeting, Bank of Japan branch chiefs said Japan's economy remains broadly resilient despite Middle East tensions, rising oil and a weak yen. They noted geopolitical-driven logistics disruptions and raw-material shortages have weighed on exports and production, but that the risk of a sharp downturn has eased as firms shift sourcing and adjust shipping routes. The branch assessment could reinforce short-term hawkish pressure; overnight index swaps currently price at least one BOJ rat

Goldman Sachs said in a July 8 report that renewed disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping could impede restoration of Middle East oil supply. Goldman estimates Persian Gulf crude output in June remained about 10.5 mln bpd below pre-conflict levels. Despite producers beginning to restart shut wells last month, Goldman warned Hormuz interruptions could slow recovery: recent tanker attacks underscore elevated transit risk and, with ceasefire status unclear, shippers may hesitate to transit, weighing on flows. Goldman estimates flows have fallen to roughly 70% of normal after the recent attacks; earlier, within 10 days of the strait’s reopening, flows had climbed to over 80% of pre-conflict levels. Flows and oil prices face two-way risk: if the 60-day talks continue and shippers obtain security guarantees and Iran secures new waivers for sales, flows could recover by end-July; if talks break down and attacks escalate, flows could fall further.

【股指期货早盘收盘】沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.04%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.43%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约跌0.56%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌1.15%。