Barclays' baseline projects the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged through end-2027. Barclays strategists nonetheless say the balance of risk is toward further hikes after the Fed's latest policy minutes showed participants increasingly concerned about inflation and the risk it remains persistently high, partly due to strong AI-related investment demand. Participants remain divided on the future policy path.

2026-07-09

Barclays' baseline projects the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged through end-2027. Barclays strategists nonetheless say the balance of risk is toward further hikes after the Fed's latest policy minutes showed participants increasingly concerned about inflation and the risk it remains persistently high, partly due to strong AI-related investment demand. Participants remain divided on the future policy path.