Hostilities between the US and Iran have escalated three weeks after a
memorandum of understanding to start a ceasefire, lifting global oil roughly 7%
as markets reprice geopolitical and supply risk. The clashes increase the
prospect of wider military conflict and renewed disruption to shipments through
the Strait of Hormuz if retaliatory strikes intensify. President Trump said the
situation would "end very soon" and appears to be using strikes to try to force
Iran back to talks on its nuclear program; analysts say options are limited and
there is little sign Iran will make the major concessions Washington seeks. If
the US retreats after a strong Iranian response, market participants may further
price Iran’s ability to leverage the Hormuz chokepoint.
