National Bureau of Statistics data: in June, food, tobacco and dining-out prices fell 0.8% YoY, subtracting about 0.24 ppt from CPI. Food breakdown: livestock meat -7.3% YoY (CPI impact ~-0.30 ppt); pork -15.9%. Dairy -1.7% YoY (CPI impact ~-0.02 ppt). Fresh fruit -0.7% YoY (CPI impact ~-0.01 ppt). Eggs +16.0% YoY (CPI impact +0.08 ppt). Among the seven other major categories, six rose and one fell: other goods and services +6.6% YoY; transport & communications +4.1%; healthcare +2.3%; clothing

Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Gold T+D closed down 0.6% at 897.46 yuan/gram on Thursday, July 9. SGE Silver T+D closed down 2.11% at 14,443.0 yuan/kg on Thursday, July 9.

Since the Iran conflict began US retail fuel has surged: AAA shows regular gasoline about 25% higher YoY at $3.80/gal and diesel up 30% at $4.80/gal. Crude has eased recently, but uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is likely to keep refined fuel prices firm because additional Gulf crude supply takes time to reach product markets. Analysts point to limited refining capacity widening the crude–product spread; Enverus analyst Carl Larry says refinery bottlenecks mean product prices will remain elevated. Global fuel supply is further strained after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries triggered a severe domestic fuel shortage and Moscow subsequently banned diesel exports; Russia had been the world’s No.2 diesel exporter. University of Houston energy researcher Ed Hirs says current volatility is creating price premia and higher costs.