US President Trump told a NATO summit in Turkey on the 8th the US military is "very likely to strike Iran hard again tonight."

After NATO agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, Chancellor MERZ said Germany will hit the target well ahead of 2029. The cabinet-approved budget lifts core defense spending in 2027 by nearly one-third to EUR109.7bn (USD125.3bn) and includes about EUR118.7bn of new borrowing in next year’s core budget. The move ends Germany’s post‑war fiscal restraint, overrides constraints such as the debt brake, and marks a turning point for global macro re-pricing of European sovereign risk and onshore manufacturing supply chains amid US troop drawdowns from Europe and rising US–Iran tensions.

EIA: U.S. refined product output change -1,000 b/d in the week to July 3; prior week -42,000 b/d.