Francesco Pesole at ING said in a note the Paris appellate court will rule on Tuesday on Marine Le Pen’s bid to overturn a ban from holding elected office tied to alleged misuse of European Parliament funds; the decision is politically significant for France but is unlikely to have a major impact on the euro. If the ban is overturned it could boost the far-right National Rally and shift expectations toward a Le Pen run over party chairman Jordan Bardella, but markets have largely priced in eithe

Francesco Pesole at ING said in a note the Paris appellate court will rule on Tuesday on Marine Le Pen’s bid to overturn a ban from holding elected office tied to alleged misuse of European Parliament funds; the decision is politically significant for France but is unlikely to have a major impact on the euro. If the ban is overturned it could boost the far-right National Rally and shift expectations toward a Le Pen run over party chairman Jordan Bardella, but markets have largely priced in either outcome and expect whichever leader emerges to show sufficient fiscal prudence to limit bond-market volatility.