CITIC Securities says market worries over Chinese electrolytic-aluminum
overproduction and an Indonesian capacity ramp may be overstated. Accounting for
potential supply disruptions and signs of demand improvement, it expects
aluminum prices to be constructive through 2026 and H1 2027 and to remain
supported by an approximate $3,000/ton cost curve and incentive price after H2
2027. The firm views Chinese aluminum producers as maintaining investment
appeal.