【期货热点追踪】生猪期货早盘大幅高开，核心受周末现货大涨、肥标价差走扩及养殖端惜售缩量驱动。后续需关注终端对高价猪肉的承接力及政策调控的实际落地情况。

Senior commodities analyst Henry Hu says gold-jewellery stocks historically tracked gold prices and were treated as adjuncts to miners, but the dynamic has shifted. Since 2025 investment gold bars have exceeded 50% of the China market and become dominant; self-purchase and wedding demand remain rigid but are budget-anchored, so consumers tend to wait when gold is elevated. A H1 decline in the gold price has not produced a clear rebound in jewellery sales. Fixed-price SKUs suffer from delayed repricing and companies’ responses differ; gram-weight products are more resilient. Chaohongji reported sequential acceleration in Q2 and continued sell-through. Crucially, share prices have materially disconnected from fundamentals: gold weakness affects firms unevenly, yet the sector has fallen collectively and many names trade at very low PBs (Chow Sang Sang ~0.4). Absent a further ~50% drop in gold, current valuations look cheap.

新台币兑美元下跌0.5%，报32.078，为3月31日以来的最低水平。