Craig Shapiro, senior macro strategist and cross-asset trader at Ninja Trader Live, says Fed chair Kevin Warsh sounded optimistic on growth—largely citing AI—while falling oil has pushed down inflation breakevens. Shapiro adds that although the bar for further hikes may be higher than markets expect, the bar for cuts is even higher; with Warsh hinting that balance-sheet reduction may take longer, meaningful labor-market deterioration would likely be required to trigger easing. He cautions that i

Craig Shapiro, senior macro strategist and cross-asset trader at Ninja Trader Live, says Fed chair Kevin Warsh sounded optimistic on growth—largely citing AI—while falling oil has pushed down inflation breakevens. Shapiro adds that although the bar for further hikes may be higher than markets expect, the bar for cuts is even higher; with Warsh hinting that balance-sheet reduction may take longer, meaningful labor-market deterioration would likely be required to trigger easing. He cautions that if evidence of a labor slowdown mounts while the Fed delays policy easing amid still-elevated inflation, risk assets would likely come under pressure, making rotations from AI into higher-beta cyclical names or small caps harder and favoring defensive sectors and possibly gold.