SMBC Nikko strategist Makoto Noji said the yen cannot sustain appreciation unless the Japanese government pursues firm fiscal consolidation. He said widening short-to-long yield gaps in Western bond markets indicate Japan has begun exporting fiscal-driven upward pressure on yields to the West. Noji added that if the US conducts a rate check similar to earlier this year, yen appreciation could accelerate, and such a move might signal US pressure for Japan to improve its fiscal position.

2026-07-03

SMBC Nikko strategist Makoto Noji said the yen cannot sustain appreciation unless the Japanese government pursues firm fiscal consolidation. He said widening short-to-long yield gaps in Western bond markets indicate Japan has begun exporting fiscal-driven upward pressure on yields to the West. Noji added that if the US conducts a rate check similar to earlier this year, yen appreciation could accelerate, and such a move might signal US pressure for Japan to improve its fiscal position.