法国财长莱斯库尔：明年很可能会制定一份法国预算，将尽一切努力使赤字尽可能接近5%水平。

China International Capital Co says markets have entered a corrective phase since June: the dollar index broke above its one-year upper range while AI-driven global equity benchmarks and liquidity-sensitive indices have pulled back; US equities show a defensive-style bias. The report attributes the moves mainly to rising rate-hike expectations and marginal tightening in dollar liquidity. It reiterates the view that the Fed will be nominally hawkish but effectively dovish this year; policy implementation this year is more likely to focus on easing bank regulation to support the investment cycle and buy time for AI-driven productivity gains. After this round of adjustment markets may rotate into lagged-curve trades; the dollar index could revert to a weaker trading range. Real assets, industrials and technology retain expansion potential, and investors should watch banking deregulation for its potential to lift traditional cyclicals.

现在做空美光科技(MU.O)注定会亏的体无完肤。数据显示，全球数据中心内存需求将从2024年的600亿美元增长至2030年的1.4万亿美元。这意味着六年增长23倍，而且这个数字还不包括手机、笔记本或汽车，仅仅是数据中心。生产这种内存的公司只有三家：三星、SK海力士和美光，没有其他竞争者。大家现在真正想要的产品并非普通DRAM，而是HBM，即高带宽内存。这些芯片被物理贴装到英伟达的GPU上，距离计算核心仅数毫米。单个Blackwell GB200需要192GB HBM，而一个NVL72机架需要13,824GB。Meta和微软正以数千台为单位订购这些机架，每一台都意味着确定的HBM采购。美光在2026年尚未开始时，就已将全年HBM供应全部售罄。 美光已签署16份“照付不议”合同，锁定了1000亿美元的最低收入，客户已为尚未生产的芯片预付了220亿美元现金。这不是大宗商品生意，而是客户因担心断供而提前付款。 美光拥有全球内存市场约三分之一的份额——1.4万亿美元的三分之一意味着仅数据中心一项就有4700亿美元流向这一家公司，尚未计入任何消费级设备出货。做空美光，就等于押注超大规模厂商停止建设、AI需求消失，这种押注注定是逆时代潮流。