BNP Paribas has raised its forecast for Japan's terminal policy rate to 2.50% from 2.00%. Economist Ryutaro Kono expects the Bank of Japan to pursue gradual tightening, hiking roughly every four to five months, taking the policy rate to 1.25% by end-2026, 2.00% by end-2027 and a terminal 2.50% in September 2028. He cites persistent yen downside pressure and inflation likely to remain above the BOJ's 2% target. The bank says the government is expected to remain passively tolerant of further rate

BNP Paribas has raised its forecast for Japan's terminal policy rate to 2.50% from 2.00%. Economist Ryutaro Kono expects the Bank of Japan to pursue gradual tightening, hiking roughly every four to five months, taking the policy rate to 1.25% by end-2026, 2.00% by end-2027 and a terminal 2.50% in September 2028. He cites persistent yen downside pressure and inflation likely to remain above the BOJ's 2% target. The bank says the government is expected to remain passively tolerant of further rate rises.