亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型对第二季度实际GDP增速的预期从2.5%下调至1.2%。

欧洲央行管委内格尔：目前判断二轮效应是否结束为时尚早。

ECB policymaker De Marco said the central bank should not rush into further rate hikes after oil prices fell unexpectedly and sharply. He noted the ECB raised rates in June and its forecasts assumed further tightening, but the recent drop in energy costs strengthens the case for pausing by quickly easing inflation expectations and reducing wage pressures. De Marco said only a second-round inflation effect, de-anchored inflation expectations, or stronger wage demands would justify pre-emptive tightening; those conditions are not currently evident, and with oil back near pre-conflict levels the ECB can wait for the next forecast round rather than risk unnecessary harm to growth. He added that even the milder scenario in the latest forecasts still assumes further tightening, so if incoming data validate that path the ECB may still need to raise rates.