Spot gold turned higher intraday, regaining levels above $4,000/oz.

Winners: South Korea’s KOSPI doubled in 1H (+100%), driven by AI flows and historic rallies in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Taiwan’s weighted index rose ~60%, led by TSMC (+>55% over six months). Japan’s Nikkei climbed ~40%, powered by tech gains and a sharp yen depreciation that boosted exporter appeal to foreign buyers. Spot crude remained a top performer despite a pullback: WTI +~20% YTD, Brent +~20% YTD. US major indices posted solid gains: Nasdaq ~+13%, S&P 500 +9.5% 1H. The dollar index recovered from a low of 95.5 to close H1 above 101, up ~3% YTD. AUD/USD gained ~3.7% on Reserve Bank of Australia hikes and higher energy prices. Copper benefited from “compute metal” demand: LME 3M copper +7%, hitting a record ~$14,527/ton. Losers: Precious metals underperformed—spot gold -~7% YTD and more than $1,500 below its intra-year peak; spot silver -~18%; platinum -~24%; palladium -~25%. Yen weakness: USD/JPY +3.8% 1H, yen at a 40-year low and USD/JPY roughly +10% since last October’s change in Japanese leadership. Indonesia: Jakarta Composite Index down ~34% 1H amid severe political turmoil; rupiah was the weakest Asian currency YTD.

Euro-area inflation eased to 2.8% in June, below a Refinitiv survey forecast of 3% and down from 3.2% in May. The decline eases price pressures linked to the Iran war and is a positive for the ECB as it seeks to curb inflation. The ECB raised rates 25bp to 2.25% last month — its first hike since 2023 — and June marked the fourth consecutive month above the ECB's 2% medium-term target. Prior to the data, swap markets had been pricing another 25bp ECB hike by year-end.