China International Capital Co says gold has likely priced in excessive Fed rate-hike expectations and could see some giveback this year. The macro team argues persistent labor and consumption pressures, plus rising financing demand from the US AI-driven economy, make a materially hawkish Fed unlikely; policy may be “hawkish in name but dovish in practice.” Using a model that infers rate expectations from gold, the note estimates the current ~$4,000/oz gold price implies pricing for roughly 3–4

China International Capital Co says gold has likely priced in excessive Fed rate-hike expectations and could see some giveback this year. The macro team argues persistent labor and consumption pressures, plus rising financing demand from the US AI-driven economy, make a materially hawkish Fed unlikely; policy may be “hawkish in name but dovish in practice.” Using a model that infers rate expectations from gold, the note estimates the current ~$4,000/oz gold price implies pricing for roughly 3–4 further hikes, above what interest-rate futures currently show. If falling oil prices feed through to US near-term inflation, the market’s pricing of hikes could be revised lower, creating short-term buying/covering opportunities in the futures market.