Minutes of the RBA's June meeting said policy needs to remain restrictive to eliminate excess demand. The minutes were finalised before Brent crude fell more than 10% last week, leaving their hawkish tone out of step with recent market moves. Markets currently price only about 10bp of further tightening by year-end and roughly 17bp of easing by 2027. The AUD is caught between the RBA's readiness to hike if necessary and market bets that rates have likely peaked; if incoming data confirm oil-driv

Minutes of the RBA's June meeting said policy needs to remain restrictive to eliminate excess demand. The minutes were finalised before Brent crude fell more than 10% last week, leaving their hawkish tone out of step with recent market moves. Markets currently price only about 10bp of further tightening by year-end and roughly 17bp of easing by 2027. The AUD is caught between the RBA's readiness to hike if necessary and market bets that rates have likely peaked; if incoming data confirm oil-driven disinflation, AUD could be repriced lower. Declines in Sydney and Melbourne house prices increase domestic growth risk and may accelerate dovish market repricing despite the RBA's still-tight rhetoric.