BARCLAYS research team in its quarterly emerging-market economic and strategy
outlook said geopolitics and energy prices dominated market moves in Q2, yet EM
economies and assets outperformed expectations. The firm warned the Fed policy
cycle could pose new challenges for EM local-currency assets, while an easing of
Middle East tensions could create room for upside. Investors should target
market-specific, fundamentals-driven excess-return opportunities. BARCLAYS
raised its 2026 growth forecast for Asia to 5.2% and identified the region as
the most upwardly biased among EMs. Previously feared supply-chain shocks did
not trigger a regional growth slowdown; exports — especially tech exports —
remained resilient, and corporations and governments largely could reallocate
energy supplies. Most economies performed better than expected; the Philippines
was an exception.
