Kumar, a member of the Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel, said if global oil stays near $70/bbl, India’s growth this year could exceed 7%, above the RBI’s current forecast. He said easing Middle East tensions and progress in US–Iran talks have reduced Strait of Hormuz supply concerns and the inflation and growth risks they posed, and could prompt the RBI to revise its projection within a single policy meeting. This contrasts with about three weeks ago when the RBI cut its annual growth

Kumar, a member of the Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel, said if global oil stays near $70/bbl, India’s growth this year could exceed 7%, above the RBI’s current forecast. He said easing Middle East tensions and progress in US–Iran talks have reduced Strait of Hormuz supply concerns and the inflation and growth risks they posed, and could prompt the RBI to revise its projection within a single policy meeting. This contrasts with about three weeks ago when the RBI cut its annual growth forecast to 6.6% citing Middle East uncertainty. India imports roughly 90% of its oil and is highly sensitive to energy-price swings. The RBI will publish updated forecasts at its next monetary policy review on Aug. 5; Kumar said the bank may lower its current fiscal-year inflation forecast of 5.1% toward the 4% target.