Huatai Securities says market fears of 2027–28 overseas electrolytic aluminium capacity additions—focused on Indonesia, India, Angola and Saudi Arabia—are overstated. Accounting for China's domestic capacity ceiling, uncertainty over overseas power infrastructure and supply-demand modelling, Huatai judges current forward pricing too pessimistic and expects overseas forward supply-demand to remain at a tight balance. If global power constraints worsen and AI-related new demand scales up, the mark

Huatai Securities says market fears of 2027–28 overseas electrolytic aluminium capacity additions—focused on Indonesia, India, Angola and Saudi Arabia—are overstated. Accounting for China's domestic capacity ceiling, uncertainty over overseas power infrastructure and supply-demand modelling, Huatai judges current forward pricing too pessimistic and expects overseas forward supply-demand to remain at a tight balance. If global power constraints worsen and AI-related new demand scales up, the market could move into a material shortfall. On costs, Huatai expects the full-cost midpoint at high-cost smelters to continue rising and estimates a 2027–28 overseas spot aluminium floor (including spot premiums) above $3,000/t, roughly ¥22,000/t domestically. Current equity market pricing for the aluminium sector is materially below those support levels, implying valuations may be depressed.