China will see above-normal extreme weather during this year’s main flood
season, with concurrent drought and flood risks and two distinct north–south
rain belts, the Ministry of Emergency Management said. Heavy floods are possible
in the Haihe, Songliao, Pearl River, upper Yangtze and lower Yellow River
basins; landfalling typhoons may be more frequent and stronger. Northern China
is forecast wetter with elevated flood and inundation risk; as the rain belt
shifts west and north, parts of the south could transition from flooding to
drought, complicating flood control and drought relief. Recent trends show
extreme events breaking past patterns: northern heavy-rain events are about 50%
more frequent than the 1990s average and their integrated intensity about 50%
stronger than the long‑term norm. The northern wet bias and high risk of
damaging heavy rain and severe convective storms are expected to persist over
the next five years. Global warming is identified as the primary driver and El
Niño as an important contributing factor.
