【期货热点追踪】厄尔尼诺+乙醇政策双重挤压，全球第二大食糖出口国印度或连续数年退出食糖出口市场，甚至面临十年来首次进口糖的命运！

British politics is again in flux as Labour leader Keir Starmer faces an internal rebellion, raising the prospect of a seventh prime minister in ten years and extending policy uncertainty for markets. Two front-runners in early market pricing are Andy Burnham—advocating progressive capitalism, greater state intervention, stronger public services and devolution, long pro-EU but cautious on rejoining (prediction markets ~94% support)—and Wes Stretton, a centrist proposing tax reform (aligning capital gains with income tax) and an explicit pro-EU rejoin stance (prediction markets ~1%). Recent precedent shows leadership moves can be market-moving: Liz Truss’s short-lived fiscal package triggered severe market turbulence and a sharp fall in sterling; Boris Johnson completed Brexit but left after a governance scandal. Structural constraints persist: Brexit’s drag on trade, investment and labour mobility; intense intra-party politics that shorten leaders’ tenures; and concentrated socioeconomic pressures—manufacturing hollowing, ageing population, rising fiscal and public-service burdens, and regional disparities—limit any government’s ability to deliver quick fixes. For asset allocators and macro traders, the immediate implications are elevated political risk and policy uncertainty around fiscal, regulatory and EU-related direction rather than a clear directional break.

卡塔尔与巴基斯坦联合声明：本周剩余时间将在瑞士布尔根施托克度假村就所有问题继续进行技术性会谈。