Iran's deputy oil minister said Iraq plans to gradually restore crude oil output to 4.2-4.3 mln bpd, the level before the US-Iran conflict.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of a very strong El Niño by 2027 at about 63%. Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said a 'super El Niño' could raise regional temperatures, drive spikes in electricity demand, cut crop yields and rekindle inflationary pressure, complicating central-bank outlooks and posing downside risk to global equities near record levels. Hansen added the timing is sensitive because markets are still adjusting to inflation effects from the US‑Iran conflict and supply chains remain fragile after months of disruption. Market-sensitive sectors include agriculture, energy, utilities and insurance, with direct implications for inflation, policy guidance, liquidity and sector positioning.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy warned that Russia is preparing an imminent large-scale attack on Ukraine.