Citi
- Forecasts April NFP at -15K vs consensus +65K.
- Expects unemployment rate to rise from 4.3% to 4.4%.
- Says payroll volatility is increasingly being discounted by Fed officials.
- Views weak payroll prints as less recessionary due to flat labor force growth.
- Still expects three 25bp Fed cuts in September, October, and December.
MUFG
- Forecasts April NFP at +45K, slightly below consensus.
- Expects unemployment rate to tick up to 4.4%.
- Notes March job-loss contribution to unemployment was unusually negative and
should normalize in April.
- Believes oil and gasoline price shocks will have minimal near-term labor
market impact.
- Says broader economic shocks take time to feed into employment data.
FOREX.com
- Market consensus: +65K NFP, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.3%.
- Leading indicators point to a potentially stronger print of 110K-150K.
- Says the US labor market remains resilient despite AI concerns and
geopolitical risks.
- Notes the economy has averaged roughly 70K jobs added per month this year.
- Expects continuation of the “low hire, low fire” labor market regime.
FXStreet
- Investors expect NFP to rise by 62K after March’s 178K increase.
- Expects unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.
- Forecasts annual wage growth to rise to 3.8% from 3.5%.
- Says markets are looking for signs of labor market stabilization after recent
volatility.
TD Securities
- Forecasts NFP at +80K.
- Expects +85K private payroll gains and -5K government job losses.
- Sees healthcare and leisure & hospitality driving job growth.
- Expects unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%.
- Forecasts average hourly earnings at +0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y.
