波兰央行行长：伊朗战争影响小于2022年能源价格冲击。

A confidential U.S. intelligence assessment concluded Iran can withstand the Trump administration’s naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, while retaining about 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles and 75% of its mobile launchers, according to people familiar with the analysis. The assessment contrasts with President Donald Trump’s claims that Iran’s missile capabilities are “mostly decimated.” The report also found Tehran has restored many underground facilities and may continue limited oil exports through storage and overland routes. Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies said the blockade “would not force the regime to bend to Washington’s demands,” adding the conflict could leave Iran “stronger than before.”

美联储哈玛克：美元仍然是主导货币。