The U.S.-Iran cease-fire announced Tuesday has slightly increased investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. However, the end of the conflict removes the worst-case scenario of demand destruction from supply-chain disruptions, leaving inflation pressures largely intact. Nick Timiraos notes that energy and goods prices remain elevated, financial conditions are easing, and the labor market is resilient, making it harder for the Fed to justify near-term easing despite improved

The U.S.-Iran cease-fire announced Tuesday has slightly increased investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. However, the end of the conflict removes the worst-case scenario of demand destruction from supply-chain disruptions, leaving inflation pressures largely intact. Nick Timiraos notes that energy and goods prices remain elevated, financial conditions are easing, and the labor market is resilient, making it harder for the Fed to justify near-term easing despite improved growth prospects.