Saudi oil officials are urgently modeling price scenarios if the Iran war and supply disruptions persist, with a base case above $180/barrel by late April. Despite higher revenues, such levels raise concerns over demand destruction, recession risk, and reputational damage. Analyst Umer Karim notes Saudi Arabia prefers moderate price gains with stable market share. Saudi Aramco declined to comment.

2026-03-20

Saudi oil officials are urgently modeling price scenarios if the Iran war and supply disruptions persist, with a base case above $180/barrel by late April. Despite higher revenues, such levels raise concerns over demand destruction, recession risk, and reputational damage. Analyst Umer Karim notes Saudi Arabia prefers moderate price gains with stable market share. Saudi Aramco declined to comment.