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Money markets are pricing in a 55% chance of an ECB rate cut by July 2026, compared with a 50% chance before the U.S. data.

2025-10-24

Money markets are pricing in a 55% chance of an ECB rate cut by July 2026, compared with a 50% chance before the U.S. data.

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2025-10-24

The final expected value of the US one-year inflation rate in October is 4.6%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 4.60%.

The final expected value of the US one-year inflation rate in October is 4.6%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 4.60%.
2025-10-24

Foreign 1. JPMorgan: Gold prices are expected to average over $5,000 in 2026, with a long-term bullish outlook of $6,000. 2. Barclays: CPI figures need to be significantly higher than expected to change expectations of a Fed rate cut. 3. JPMorgan and

Foreign 1. JPMorgan: Gold prices are expected to average over $5,000 in 2026, with a long-term bullish outlook of $6,000. 2. Barclays: CPI figures need to be significantly higher than expected to change expectations of a Fed rate cut. 3. JPMorgan and Bank of America predict: The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction early this month. 4. State Street: Investor optimism about risky assets may be excessive. 5. ING: Spreads on US dollar corporate bonds continue to narrow, becoming less attractive than eurobonds. 6. Citi: Rising oil prices open a hedging window for producers, but the geopolitical premium may not last. 7. Commerzbank: The foreign exchange market appears insensitive to tariff threats, and expectations of rate cuts are constrained by inflationary pressures. 8. JPMorgan Chase: The Bank of Japan remains likely to raise interest rates in October, potentially leading to a rebound in the yen. 9. ING: Rising inflation in Japan opens the door for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Domestic 1. Guotai Junan Securities: Overseas crypto mining farms are transforming into AI computing centers. 2. Huatai Securities: Watch for opportunities to increase allocations to gold assets after gold prices stabilize. 3. CITIC Securities: A ruling on the Trump tariff case is expected by the end of the year or in the first quarter of next year. 4. Minsheng Securities: US core inflation will face an upward inflection point year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
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