In its report "Memory Chips – Key Issues Post-US Midterm Elections," released on November 9th, Morgan Stanley significantly lowered its target prices for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
SK Hynix's target price was lowered from 2.6 million won to 1.6 million won, a 38% decrease; Samsung Electronics' target price was lowered from 381,000 won to 309,000 won, a 19% decrease.
The bank believes that the expansion of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to drive the memory chip industry's prosperity, but starting from the end of 2027, with new production facilities gradually coming online, the current high profitability levels may be difficult to sustain in the long term.
However, the bank maintains an optimistic outlook for short-term performance. Morgan Stanley raised its 2020 operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics by 9% to approximately 688 trillion won, and for SK Hynix by 13% to approximately 468 trillion won. The bank also raised its 2028 operating profit forecasts for the two companies by 10% and 1%, respectively. This report maintains an "overweight" rating for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley lowered its target price because it expects the memory chip industry's profit margins to return to historical averages after 2029. Stock prices often fluctuate before changes in corporate fundamentals, and the market will reflect the risk of downward revisions in earnings expectations in advance.
