Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that market expectations for Anthropic's IPO are rapidly converging towards late November. The implied probability of Anthropic completing its IPO on or before November 19th is 34%, rising rapidly to 77% on or before November 20th, 95% before November 25th, and reaching 97% by the end of the year. The cumulative probability jumped 43 percentage points on November 19th and 20th alone, indicating a high concentration of market expectations within this timeframe. It's important to note that these figures reflect the cumulative probability of the IPO up to the corresponding date, representing market-priced probabilities, not the probability of the IPO occurring on the exact day. The actual timing should be determined by the company's official listing schedule.
