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Oil fell on Friday as markets weighed US-Iran ceasefire talks against continuing risks from escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia that could disrupt supplies. Sources said negotiators met in New York this week and discussed a phased end to the co

2026-09-25

Oil fell on Friday as markets weighed US-Iran ceasefire talks against continuing risks from escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia that could disrupt supplies. Sources said negotiators met in New York this week and discussed a phased end to the conflict, including Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting US economic sanctions on Iran. Iranian president PEZESHKIAN said Thursday the war’s end depends on US decisions. Refinitiv ship-tracking data show physical supply remains fragile: 10 bulk carriers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, up from seven the day before but well below a ten-day average of about 17. Diplomatic progress could trim some geopolitical premium, but shipping flows indicate normalization remains some way off.

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2026-09-24

The recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields warrants attention, but the current situation resembles more the "supply shock + high-interest-rate repricing" scenario of 2022-2023 than a situation where the bond market has spiraled out of control. The c

The recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields warrants attention, but the current situation resembles more the "supply shock + high-interest-rate repricing" scenario of 2022-2023 than a situation where the bond market has spiraled out of control. The core issue is not whether the 10-year yield has broken through 5%, but rather that the market has yet to see a clear mechanism to end the sell-off. Currently, high oil prices, resilient US economic data, and limited room for Fed rate cuts, coupled with competition for long-term funds from fiscal financing, AI, and data center capital expenditures, further drive up real interest rates and term premiums. In this environment, even with already high yields, the market will continue to seek higher equilibrium rates as long as the economy and credit system can withstand the pressure. These bond sell-offs typically end in two ways: first, a significant external disruption, such as a rapid deterioration in employment, a surge in credit spreads, deleveraging of risky assets, or liquidity pressures on financial institutions; second, a market consensus that "yields are already high enough," leading long-term funds to actively increase duration. Neither of these signals is currently clear enough. Therefore, the more important thing is not to guess whether the 10-year yield will eventually reach 5.2% or 5.4%, but to observe whether high interest rates begin to trigger credit deterioration and a non-linear tightening of financial conditions. The former is still normal repricing, while the latter signifies a true market breakdown.
2026-09-24

Iran's foreign ministry said Iran's foreign minister thanked Pakistan for a constructive mediation role in US‑Iran talks and accused the United States of breaching commitments that have repeatedly undermined the mediation mechanism. He said US violat

Iran's foreign ministry said Iran's foreign minister thanked Pakistan for a constructive mediation role in US‑Iran talks and accused the United States of breaching commitments that have repeatedly undermined the mediation mechanism. He said US violations of the Islamabad understanding have heightened regional insecurity and tensions and that Washington should be held responsible for the resulting consequences.
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