On September 23, the Buffett Index (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) stood at 92.82, ending a three-day winning streak and recently fluctuating within the middle range of its year-to-date range. The equity risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index, a stock-bond ratio indicator, rose to 5.78%, nearing its high point after more than a year. From a longer-term perspective, this indicator remains in the middle of its four-year fluctuation range, approaching the key level of 6%, suggesting that the current attractiveness of the stock market relative to government bond yields is at a slightly above-neutral level.
-------- Note: 1. The Buffett Index compares the total market capitalization of the stock market to GDP to determine whether the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation, below this range is considered undervalued, and above this range is considered overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, the investment value is low, and there is even a risk of correction.
