Market Impact
1. US: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years last week, increasing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot showed that 16 officials expect another rate hike in 2026. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond recently hit its highest level since 2007.
2. EU: The European Central Bank raised interest rates again in early September, simultaneously increasing all three key policy rates by 25 basis points. It also raised its inflation and economic growth forecasts for some years, citing continued inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.
3. Japan: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, and explicitly stated that underlying CPI inflation is approaching 2%, and that further rate hikes will be implemented. However, the yen depreciated instead of appreciating.
4. Iran: Currency tracking websites showed that the Iranian riyal fell to a record low against the US dollar in early September, with more than 2.2 million riyals exchanging for one US dollar. Iran's GDP plummeted 10.1% in the quarter ending March 21-June 20, and its average annual inflation rate for the past 12 months reached 69.9% in August.
5. Russia: Russia's oil revenues fell by about 22% year-on-year in August, a sharp drop to a six-month low, reflecting a decline in oil export prices. Oil and gas revenues in the Russian federal budget fell by 16.7% year-on-year from January to August this year.
6. Ukraine: The Central Bank of Ukraine raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 16% last week, a rare consecutive rate hike. Officials stated that inflationary pressures persist amid escalating Russian airstrikes and rising wartime uncertainty.
Political Impacts
1. United States: According to a Focaldata poll, Trump's approval rating has fallen to a historic low. With less than two months until the US midterm elections in November, only 33% of registered voters approve of Trump's performance.
2. European Union: Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is leading in two local elections. These setbacks have sparked growing calls within the ruling party for Chancellor Merz to resign. 3. Ukraine: In July, Ukrainian President Zelensky replaced the Defense Minister, sparking protests in several cities; in early September, a gunfight broke out between Ukraine's two intelligence agencies, which Zelensky condemned as "shameful."
Temporary Cooling Window
1. United States: US President Trump stated that there is strong momentum for an agreement with Iran; he is working closely with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine and will end the conflict faster than expected. Trump had considered launching airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen but ultimately decided to postpone it.
2. Europe: French President Macron stated that he discussed a proposal for Russia and Ukraine to suspend deep strikes on energy facilities during his meeting with Trump in New York.
3. Russia: In early September, Russian President Putin met with US Presidential Envoys Witkov and Kushner at the Kremlin. Putin stated that Russia will strive to ensure the negotiation process and the security of the mediators.
4. Ukraine: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to achieve an energy ceasefire with Russia, and that Ukraine is prepared to cease fire if Russia stops attacking energy facilities.
5. Iran: A senior Iranian official said on Tuesday that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
A Peace Deal Ahead?
1. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan: The bullish logic for gold prices is closely linked to oil price movements. Crude oil prices have fallen somewhat as diplomatic efforts accelerate and Saudi oil supplies resume. If the decline continues, it could alleviate market concerns about inflation. However, the bullish and bearish arguments for gold prices are currently evenly matched.
2. Analyst Tom Essaye: Market focus will continue to be on geopolitics; if signs of progress towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran are confirmed, oil prices and bond yields are expected to fall further, while stocks will rise.
3. Gelber & Associates: Although no formal breakthrough has been achieved, the prospect of renewed contact between the US and Iran during this week's UN General Assembly provides a potential path to de-escalation.
4. Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau: FOMO (fear of missing out) is surging again in the artificial intelligence sector. This rally is driven by a variety of factors, including falling oil prices and reports about AI negotiations.
