Deutsche Bank says a dense slate of Fed speeches precedes the next quiet period.
Key schedule: Waller speaks Monday at the New York Commercial Economic Club; the
Chair testsifies Tuesday–Wednesday. Several officials will give outlooks after
the June CPI print — Cook on Wednesday, Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan
and Kansas City Fed’s Schmidt on Friday. Deutsche Bank expects the Chair to
reiterate recent remarks and stay tight-lipped on future action; Waller is
likelier to outline his reaction function, so his remarks merit close attention
for policy signals. Market focus will be how officials interpret June CPI and
whether any signal support for a July rate increase. The June minutes noted
“several” officials saw a case for a hike last month; since then oil and
inflation expectations fell then partially rebounded and the unemployment rate
declined further, leaving open the possibility of dissenting votes in July in
favor of tightening.
