CNN analyst Abbas Al-Lawati stated that the core of the renewed US-Iran conflict lies in the differing interpretations of Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This article stipulates that Iran will “make arrangements… to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships” and cooperate with Oman to “determine the future administration of the Straits.” However, this article does not explicitly grant Iran exclusive jurisdiction over shipping in the area. Negar Mortazavi, host of the Iran podcast, pointed out, “Tehran’s message is clear: the Straits are open, but not on US terms.” He added, “Trump signed the agreement on paper, and now he’s trying to arbitrarily distort it at sea. Iran’s response is to bring the dispute back to the text of the MOU itself, demonstrating that military force cannot rewrite the established negotiation outcome.” The Crisis Group noted that the ambiguities in the MOU may have initially helped end the conflict, but as both sides began interpreting the text from their own interests, these ambiguities quickly became a hidden danger. The think tank stated that to prevent the ceasefire process from completely collapsing, both sides must stop trying to impose their interpretations of Article 5 on each other, even if only to de-escalate tensions while negotiations continue. This means Iran must stop firing on ships, and the United States must stop pushing for alternative shipping routes, at least for the time being. The mediators stated they are working to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. Although there are no signs of compromise yet, the fighting appears to have temporarily subsided—at least for today.
