ING analyst Francesco Pesole says recent US–Iran military strikes have pushed up market expectations for another ECB rate hike and have re-tightened euro-dollar short-term swap spreads. He warns the revived confidence in a September ECB hike leaves a

2026-07-10

ING analyst Francesco Pesole says recent US–Iran military strikes have pushed up market expectations for another ECB rate hike and have re-tightened euro-dollar short-term swap spreads. He warns the revived confidence in a September ECB hike leaves a narrow path for EUR/USD gains. Pesole expects EUR/USD to be broadly stable on Friday as markets await clarity, but notes downside risk below 1.14.