More than three weeks after signing a memorandum of understanding to initiate a ceasefire process, this escalation of the US-Iran conflict highlights the dilemma facing Trump: how to push for a comprehensive peace agreement and find a way to gracefully exit the war. Analysts say Trump's options are very limited, and most are not ideal.
If the retaliatory strikes by both sides escalate further into a large-scale military conflict, it could reignite a full-scale war. Although Trump stated on Wednesday that the latest situation would be "over soon," global oil prices have already risen by about 7% due to the tensions. However, if Trump chooses to back down in the face of Iran's strong response, it could reinforce the perception that Iran can use the Strait of Hormuz to exert influence on the international community if necessary.
Trump may hope to force Iran back to the negotiating table by bombing it to discuss the future of its nuclear program, but most experts believe there are currently few signs that Iran will make the significant concessions Trump demands. “Trump has backed himself into a difficult position,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations. “He is unlikely to gain much from Iran, either militarily or diplomatically.”
(From analyst Matt Spetalnick’s article, July 9)
