The Fed will release minutes from its June policy meeting in the early hours of
July 9 Beijing time. The June meeting left rates unchanged but the dot plot
showed a pronounced 9-8-1 split: nine participants see at least one more hike
this year, eight expect unchanged policy and one favors cuts; new chair Kevin
Walsh did not submit a dot-plot. June’s statement was marked shorter with
limited forward guidance, so markets see the minutes as the primary window into
internal leanings — notably whether the nine hawks are driven by sticky inf and
what conditions would prompt renewed tightening. Recent oil-driven rises in
energy-input inf have strengthened those concerns. If the minutes show C.BANK
remains highly focused on inf risks, expectations that higher rates will be
maintained longer could resurface, boosting USD and U.S. Treasury yields,
pressing high-valuation tech and weighing on non-USD assets.
