US-Iran tensions have become a catalyst for tech valuation compression. The
recent AI Capex-driven rally depended on low-rate liquidity and discounted
long-term cashflows; escalating tensions that raise inf upside risks have
prompted a bear-steepening of the long-end US Treasury curve, lifting equity
cost of capital for growth/tech. Global macro hedge funds are rapidly
rebalancing—selling growth/tech and buying defensives—rotating capital into hard
assets poised to benefit from higher oil prices and increased defense spending.
