President Trump made strong remarks today in Ankara during the NATO summit, declaring the US-Iran Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding "over" and denouncing the Iranian regime as "sick people." This statement signals the potential collapse of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which had only been in effect for 20 days, and a sudden escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis.
Firstly, this move is expected to further fuel inflation expectations. The 14-point framework agreement brokered by Pakistan had briefly restored millions of barrels of crude oil exports per day from Iran. With Trump characterizing the agreement as "over" and revoking sanctions waivers, global crude oil supply faces another systemic reduction, directly reinforcing expectations of renewed inflation as WTI crude oil prices stabilize above $70.
If blockades recur, shipping premiums could surge. In response to yesterday's attack on a Qatari LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military has launched retaliatory airstrikes. The US and Iran's return to the confrontational logic of "no talk, no fight" not only completely closes the ceasefire window, but also means that the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman are once again on the verge of indefinite military blockade. Global shipping premiums and energy lifelines will face a new round of violent baptism of strong risk premiums.
