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Reserve Bank of New Zealand: There is uncertainty regarding the level of the neutral interest rate.

2026-07-08

Reserve Bank of New Zealand: There is uncertainty regarding the level of the neutral interest rate.

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2026-07-07

Capital Economics analyst Shilan Shah says rapid expansion of Indian data centers could materially affect the macro outlook. While much debate on AI focuses on services disruption, AI still requires significant physical infrastructure. Announced data

Capital Economics analyst Shilan Shah says rapid expansion of Indian data centers could materially affect the macro outlook. While much debate on AI focuses on services disruption, AI still requires significant physical infrastructure. Announced data‑center investment for 2026–30 is roughly 0.5% of annual GDP; if this spurs upgrades to India’s power grid and water systems the macro impact could be substantially larger. Rising demand for domestic electronics and precision engineering capacity would also support India moving up the manufacturing value chain.
2026-07-07

As the NATO summit convened in Ankara, Turkish President Erdogan revealed that the United States had pledged to provide aircraft, signaling a substantial thaw in US-Turkish defense relations, which had long been stalled due to the purchase of Russian

As the NATO summit convened in Ankara, Turkish President Erdogan revealed that the United States had pledged to provide aircraft, signaling a substantial thaw in US-Turkish defense relations, which had long been stalled due to the purchase of Russian-made S-400 missiles. The Trump administration's bypassing of congressional restrictions to advance support for the F110 engine and potential F-35 program signifies that the US is using "transactional diplomacy" to court Turkey, a key geopolitical hub. Although this move has drawn strong opposition from Middle Eastern allies such as Israel, the restructuring of US-Turkish arms sales has directly boosted confidence in Turkey's defense industry chain, easing tensions on NATO's southeastern flank in the short term. On a macro level, the warming of US-Turkish relations lays the groundwork for a redistribution of regional interests following multi-front conflicts in the Middle East. In the foreign exchange market, this is expected to help stabilize the Turkish lira, and geopolitical risk premiums are shifting towards a geopolitical tug-of-war.
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