At the NATO summit in Ankara President Erdogan said the US has pledged aircraft,
signaling a substantive thaw in defense ties frozen over Turkey’s purchase of
Russia’s S-400 system. The Trump administration reportedly moved to bypass
congressional restrictions to advance F110 engines and potential backing for
Turkey’s F-35 participation, reflecting transactional diplomacy to court a
geopolitically pivotal Ankara. The package drew strong opposition from Israel
and other regional allies but directly bolstered confidence in Turkey’s defense
supply chain and eased tensions on NATO’s southeastern flank in the near term.
Macro/market takeaways: a warmer US‑Turkey relationship could prompt regional
realignments after multi-front Middle East clashes, support TRY stabilization,
and shift georisk premia from acute bilateral isolation toward a broader
geopolitical tug-of-war.
