Regarding the impact of SK Hynix's US stock listing on Micron Technology, in the short term (within 3 months), the two stocks are likely to rise and fall together, rather than simply competing for business.
In terms of liquidity, the $29 billion raises funds from the entire AI sector. Tightening the liquidity pool leads to a drop in all stocks, while ample liquidity leads to a rise. However, if SK Hynix surges on a given day, but Micron experiences a sharp drop, or the rest of the sector also plummets, I would think the overall liquidity and amount of funds in the AI sector are not as optimistic as I imagine. I would then be more conservative and wait for a correction between August and October.
In the medium term (six months to one and a half years), the real competition between the two companies is just beginning, primarily vying for market share and products, specifically HBM4.
Currently, SK Hynix holds a 56% market share, while Micron only has about 21%. The projected HBM4 market share for 2026 is SK Hynix 54%, Samsung 28%, and Micron 18%. The key point is that the $29 billion raised will be directly invested in Hynix's new factory and EUV equipment, essentially giving the leading company the largest stake in the game. The overall industry shortage remains unchanged, and all three companies are profitable. However, Micron can no longer rely on its status as the sole listed storage company in the US market to passively profit.
Interestingly, Micron enjoys Trump's favor, with Trump repeatedly publicly supporting the company. This makes me very confident that no matter how strong SK Hynix is in the medium term, Micron won't suffer a major setback.
In the long term (after 2027), the key is who can weather the oversupply winter. Although storage is gradually shedding its cyclical label under the current AI trend, we still need to be wary of a potential oversupply situation in 2028-2029, which would be a harsh winter for storage.
Currently, SK Hynix secured $29 billion in equity capital at the peak of the storage boom. Its defensiveness and cash flow are better than Micron's, making it more resilient to future oversupply crises. This is the most profound disadvantage for Micron.
(The above is from analyst Emily Scarlet and is for reference only.)
