The 30-year US Treasury yield rebounded above 5% today, not because "expectations of a Fed rate hike have intensified again." Earlier that day, the 2-year yield was around 4.11%-4.13%, and the 10-year yield was around 4.46%-4.47%, with the short end not giving a similarly strong upward signal.
This is more like a retest of the long-term resistance level: the 30-year yield reached 5.006% in early May and also touched 5% on July 1st.
This return to 5% indicates that market concerns about long-term inflation, fiscal supply, and term premiums have not disappeared. The impact is mainly concentrated on the long-term discount rate, mortgage rates, and equity valuation anchoring, rather than the short-term policy path.
