The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield moved back above 5% intraday without a
corresponding jump at the short end that would signal stronger Fed rate-hike
bets. Earlier the 2-year traded around 4.11%-4.13% and the 10-year around
4.46%-4.47%, leaving the short end relatively unchanged. The move resembles a
re-test of long-end resistance — the 30-year hit 5.006% in early May and briefly
touched 5% on July 1 — and points to persistent market concerns about long-term
inflation, fiscal supply and term premium. Market impact is concentrated on
long-term discount rates, mortgage rates and equity valuation anchors, not on
the policy-sensitive short end.
