A framework agreement signed by the US, Israel and Lebanon has not resolved the
Lebanon conflict and mainly bought time for strategic repositioning. Hezbollah’s
refusal to disarm and Israel’s stance of “no disarmament, no withdrawal” leave
any ceasefire fragile. Israel is refocusing on Syria: recent artillery strikes
in Daraa and stepped-up operations near the Golan Heights point to construction
of a security buffer from southern Lebanon into southern Syria to sustain
pressure on Iran and Iran-backed militias and to retain a preemptive posture.
Syria is increasingly the new front for containing Iran; even if Lebanon cools,
regional contest could shift to Syria and become the next flashpoint.
