Morgan Stanley analysts say the robotaxi industry is moving from limited pilots
into early commercialization and may evolve into a distributed mobility network
rather than centralized deployments. They project a global fleet of roughly 2.5
million vehicles by 2035 and see about a $1 trillion market opportunity by 2040.
Unit economics are expected to reach break-even around 2028, with mass
commercial operations by 2030. Advances in AI, falling hardware costs and
clearer regulation are accelerating deployments; some operators already run 24/7
driverless services in select cities. The bank says investor focus is shifting
from technical feasibility to identifying operators most likely to scale
efficiently and profitably.
