Weakening commodity prices and a surge in imports tied to data-centre
construction have narrowed Australia’s goods trade surplus and could produce the
first annual trade deficit since 2016. Fuel and equipment imports have jumped
while exports have stalled; the government forecasts major commodity export
receipts will rise only 3% in the current fiscal year. After years of
mining-driven export gains, softer commodity prices are expected to weigh on
export income. A return to deficit would likely pressure the AUD and tighten
fiscal space.
