China International Capital Co (CICC) says June US nonfarm payrolls rose 57k,
below consensus, indicating a cooling in employment acceleration. After downward
revisions the three‑month average gain remains 111k, showing continued
labor‑market expansion; unemployment fell to 4.2% while labor‑force
participation declined, consistent with firm demand and tighter supply and
limited overall unemployment pressure. CICC maintains a call that the report
gives the Fed room to wait, so it expects neither a rate hike nor a cut this
year. Medium term, CICC attributes recent job gains more to an AI‑investment led
cyclical recovery than to short‑lived factors; if AI drives sustained aggregate
demand expansion, the Fed could resume hiking next year.
