Commerzbank strategist Volkmar Baur says markets price roughly a 50% chance of
another RBA rate hike this year; he disagrees. Energy-driven upside risks have
faded—oil has fallen since the last meeting—while downside risks from a
meaningful fall in property prices are emerging and could dent consumer spending
and growth. Baur says only a material rise in inflation would prompt the RBA to
tighten again this year, and he does not expect that to occur.
