US Dollar:
1. Non-farm payrolls will be released today; US stock markets will be closed tomorrow.
2. Warsh has invited former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to lead the Fed's communications working group.
3. Fed Chairman Warsh: There may be news next week regarding the appointment of heads of various working groups.
4. Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation risks have decreased, and inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks.
5. US ADP employment increased by 98,000 in June, the lowest increase since March, below market expectations of 118,000.
6. It is reported that Warsh appointed his assistant Bessant as a Fed advisor.
Euro:
1. French PMI in June was higher than the preliminary reading, returning to expansion territory.
2. German manufacturing rebounded in June, with new orders returning to growth.
3. Eurozone manufacturing output ended the first half of the year strongly, with cost pressures easing.
4. ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The measures taken in June were never a preventative rate hike. All options will remain open for interest rate decisions in July and September.
5. ECB Governing Council member Kasik: The oil price impact of the war is likely to have a longer-term effect. Another rate hike is a reasonable expectation.
6. ECB President Lagarde: My only regret is being constrained by forward guidance in the past.
7. ECB Governing Council member Stournaras: I don't think anything will happen in July; perhaps we should maintain the status quo for now.
Pound Sterling:
1. Bank of England Governor Bailey: No rate cuts are being considered at present. The economy is slowing, and the labor market is weak.
2. Markets are reducing bets on a Bank of England rate hike, now expecting a 20 basis point increase by the end of the year.
Yen Yen:
1. According to NHK: Japan's tax revenue for the last fiscal year is expected to reach approximately 84 trillion yen, a record high for the sixth consecutive year.
2. Sources: Japan is gradually reducing its practice of early warning interventions and instead focusing on cracking down on speculators. Intervention is not targeted at the yen's level, but rather aimed at preventing excessive depreciation of the yen. 3. Overseas investors sold off the largest amount of Japanese government bonds in three years in June.
4. Toshihiro Nagahama, a private member of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, stated that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates at a rate of once every six months, a pace that would not harm domestic investment. Moderate interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are crucial to correcting the excessive depreciation of the yen.
Other:
1. Indian Government: India collected a total of 1.95 trillion rupees in Goods and Services Tax (GST) in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.
2. Traders: The Reserve Bank of India may have intervened to ease pressure on the rupee.
3. Central Bank of Russia: It will consider developments in the fuel market and their secondary impacts at its next interest rate meeting. The room for further interest rate cuts has narrowed.
4. NATO Secretary General: Arms orders from Europe and Canada to the United States have reached $300 billion.
5. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: We are at the lower end of the neutral interest rate range, roughly at a level that can curb inflation.
6. Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Appoints Angus McGregor as Assistant Governor for Financial Stability.
7. Persistently high inflation in South Korea supports the central bank's hawkish stance.
8. South Korean Deputy Finance Minister: Maintains close communication with Japan on foreign exchange matters; the USD/KRW exchange rate is inconsistent with economic fundamentals; South Korea is considering measures to enhance liquidity in the overnight spot market.
9. Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam: With the strengthening US dollar, the Vietnamese dong is under pressure; the central bank will stabilize the foreign exchange market; determined to control inflation.
10. Australia unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit in May, the largest gap since 2015.
11. Swiss National Bank: Bank supervision must be further strengthened. As emphasized during the Credit Suisse crisis, the current regulatory capital regime fails to adequately cover the risks associated with foreign investment.
